Housing – Gary Bennett Publishing

Can Frederick County ever be ‘Montgomery County North?’

By Gary Bennett and Hugh Gordon

white and gray concrete buildings under blue sky — Montgomery County, Maryland

You hear the sentiment thrown around all the time: “If we don’t stop all of this development, Frederick’s going to become Montgomery County North.”

Hyperbole? Sure. But like a lot of things, if we don’t rely on facts, misinformation can take hold.

It makes a nice political sound bite and is easy to fall back on when we see traffic getting heavier and schools more crowded. We do have an infrastructure problem that will take real political will to solve.

The hard truth, however, is we still don’t have enough housing in this county to satisfy demand. That is irrefutable.

Experts and politicians from both sides say so. But not just that, ask the 20- and 30-year-olds around Frederick who would like to purchase a starter home but can’t. Ask the working parents about finding a reasonable rent that doesn’t take most of their paycheck.

Ask the 60- or 70-year-olds who want to downsize but can’t find anything to downsize into. The problem is real and the construction you see is Frederick County’s attempt to bring balance back to the housing market.

When comparing Frederick County with Montgomery County, here are some facts to consider.

Size

Montgomery County is huge. Frederick County has about 290,000 people; Montgomery County has nearly 1.1 million.

In geographic size, Frederick County is the largest in the state. We have a land mass of about 660 square miles. Montgomery County has about 493 square miles. Frederick County has a density of about 440 people per square mile while Montgomery County’s is about 2,100 people per square mile. It would take growth of biblical proportions for Frederick County to get anywhere near the density of Montgomery County.

Growth

Frederick and Montgomery counties are growing at comparable rates. Most growth in Montgomery County is concentrated in nine large cities or areas, including Bethesda and Silver Spring, which mostly border Washington, D.C. In Frederick County, most growth is centered in and around the city of Frederick, where infrastructure and transit options are strongest.

In Montgomery County, the growth in the larger cities near Washington, D.C., has been allowed to run together, giving it a feel of sprawl. In Frederick County, most municipalities have adopted slow-growth policies. Because of this and the open-space initiatives discussed below, there can be no running together of municipalities in Frederick County.

Open space

In Frederick and Montgomery counties, large swaths of land must be kept perpetually rural because of Maryland’s agricultural reserve program. In fact, the northern part of Montgomery County is just as rural, if not more so, than Frederick County. One-third of Montgomery County, or 93,000 acres, has been designated as the Agricultural Reserve.

But Frederick County does a better job.

Its priority preservation program seeks to permanently preserve at least 160,000 acres of agricultural land and protect a total agricultural base of 200,000 acres as a rural reserve to support a diversity of agricultural practices.

When you add on land in programs like the conservation reserve enhancement program (CREP) and the Creek Releaf program, land protected in stream buffers and county parkland, the county aims to have over 200,000 of its 427,000 acres (47%) in some type of program that is or is intended to be protected against development.

The availability of adequate public facilities focuses planning and development on the municipalities of the county, chiefly the city of Frederick. Therefore, discussions shouldn’t center on maintaining the agricultural nature of the county that we all love — that is not going away—but rather should be focused on how we can best plan for development in the municipalities of the county.

Migration

It is convenient to claim that large numbers of people from Montgomery County are moving to Frederick County every day to escape growth and taxes. Some of that is happening, but not as much as we think.

According to the 2020 American Community Survey, roughly 16,000 people migrated into Frederick County from 2016 to 2020. During this same time, about 14,100 migrated out, for a net gain of nearly 2,000. Would anybody have guessed this?

Of the 16,000 who migrated into Frederick County during this time, about 3,200, or 20% came from Montgomery County. But, 2,200 Frederick County residents migrated to Montgomery County during this time, for a net of about 1,000 people.

Yes, in-migration from Montgomery County is higher than for any other Maryland county, but it is certainly not an invasion. Interestingly, when you look at per capita in-migration, Carroll and Washington counties lead the way.

an amusement park at night — Frederick County Fair, 2023

Editor’s note: Gary Bennett is a retired marketing executive. Hugh Gordon is the association executive for the Frederick County Association of Realtors and has decades of experience in the real estate world, including 24 years as a mortgage banker. They are longtime Frederick County residents and members of the Frederick County Affordable Housing Council.

How housing (or lack thereof) affects our economy

By Gary Bennett and Hugh Gordon

Sharpe Square affordable housing units in Frederick

This article appears in the January 12, 2024 issue of the Frederick News-Post.

As the largest monthly expense for just about all of us, it is no surprise that housing plays an outsized role in our regional and national economy.

First, there is the robust construction industry and all it employs.

We see the workers every day as we make our way around Frederick. It is no surprise that housing construction and allied trades are a large economic engine for most localities, including Frederick County.

Nearly 10% of employees in Frederick County work in the construction and allied trades industry. It is one of the largest industries in our diverse local economy. Any disruption in the construction industry, or any of our top industries, would be harmful to Frederick’s overall economy.

Second, there is the menace of inflation.

The wide gap we see now in the supply of and demand for housing that has driven up housing prices to historic levels had its origins in the recession of 2007.

Later, supply chain woes caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 drove up the cost of housing even more. The lack of balance in the housing market and the higher prices that come with it have been a major driver of inflation.

Even as food and fuel prices begin to moderate, housing prices remain stubbornly high. Mortgage interest rates that rose exponentially over the past year have only cooled demand slightly.

Rents remain artificially high, too, as folks get priced out of the home-buying market and increase competition for rentals. It seems clear, and most experts agree, that the best way to make a meaningful and long-lasting dent in inflation in the U.S. is to create more moderately priced housing.

Thirdly, our current lack of affordable housing may have a profound economic impact on the future if it’s not proactively addressed.

Research has shown that increasing access to affordable housing is the most cost-effective way to reduce childhood poverty and increase economic mobility in America. If we can somehow condition ourselves to take the long view on increased affordable housing instead of focusing on the short-term problems that can be solved with government action and political will, society will be better off.

In a large multi-year study, Stanford economist Raj Chetty found that children living in stable, affordable homes are more likely to thrive in school and have greater opportunities to learn inside and outside the classroom. Children who moved to lower-poverty neighborhoods saw their earnings as adults increase by approximately 31% and had an increased likelihood of living in better neighborhoods as adults.

Indeed, the lack of safe, affordable housing is costing U.S. cities in many ways we don’t always see. It forces families to live far from work, increasing their carbon footprint. It lowers tax bases that fund the amenities we take for granted. And, perhaps most painfully, we lose potential workers and customers that keep our local businesses thriving.

You don’t have to look any farther than our Maryland neighbor to the west, Cumberland in Allegany County, for a discouraging example.

Cumberland has long embraced a very slow-growth housing policy. With little excess housing stock, Cumberland cannot grow.

Young people who may want to stay cannot find entry-level housing. Older folks who wish to sell their large family homes in hopes of downsizing to a smaller, more manageable home cannot find buyers or more modest homes to move to.

Businesses that come to town cannot find appropriate housing for their employees. It is a self-fulfilling cycle that Cumberland has found itself in for years.

Prosperity for the Frederick region depends on decisive action now to make sure our housing stock meets the needs of the future.

We are pleased to see both Frederick City and Frederick County taking steps to make building moderately priced dwelling units more appealing to developers, and if they don’t build them, a revenue base so government can fund affordable housing programs.

For Fredrick businesses to grow and stay vibrant, they need more customers and reliable workers who have housing. To succeed, Frederick County must remain a diverse place where all people have decent, safe, affordable places to live in thriving communities.

Conflicting wishes in northern Frederick County

By Gary Bennett

This article appears in the February 2, 2023, issue of The Fredrick News-Post

Did anyone else scratch their head when reading the story with the headline “District 5 residents ask not to be ignored” (The Frederick News-Post, Jan. 30)?

It came a few days after Thurmont residents voted in a referendum to disallow the annexation of 16.7 acres of county land in order to stop a high-density development that would have brought in over $1 million in tax revenue?

Residents from the northern part of the county made their conflicting feelings known at a District 5 town hall held by the new county executive just a few days after the referendum.

They say they often feel left out so they came with a laundry list of spending wishes including repairs and upgrades to roads, new parks and trails, help for emergency services, and more affordable housing for seniors—the very things this nixed high-density development would have aided.

Of course, District 5 includes more than just Thurmont, but one has to wonder if these folks wish to have their cake and eat it, too.

The kicker came when one resident said “the referendum came to a vote because the people of Thurmont want an opportunity to have a development that fits in with their small town atmosphere, not rows of townhouses that looks like Frederick City.”

As a proud resident of Frederick City, I hope the person I quoted does not partake of our many fine restaurants, theaters, cultural activities, parks or trails—all those things that a higher-density tax base allows—because if they do, they have shown their true “not in my backyard” colors.

Perhaps it is time Frederick County adopt a “fair share” law in affordable housing that is now gaining traction in other states and jurisdictions—an approach that assigns each town a certain number of units to plan and zone for, based on the needs of the region and the wealth of the town in question. The towns would then share the responsibility for that need.

Thurmont, I hate to break this to you, but your working-age children and your aging parents simply can’t afford to live in your single-family town and will most likely move to a townhouse in Frederick.